In fact, only teammate Michael Bourn managed more defensive value all around from the outfield. It may sound strange, but in a way Heywards 2011 season is actually a testament to his supreme ability. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. Players who rove around the outfield will qualify at the specific outfield position where he played the most innings provided it was a minimum of 75 percent (475 innings) of total innings at the specific position. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted Theres no disputing that Heyward was frustrating to watch at times in 2011. Depending how long Rodgers is out of the lineup and whether the Rockies want to let him continue his preparation into the early days of the regular season someone has to play second. All this before you look at his 11 home runs, easily a career low, less than the 14 he put up in two separate seasons when he averaged just 448 plate appearances. Tony Conigliaro was unfortunately never the same after a pitch permanently injured him, while other players like Ruben Sierra and Carlos Baerga simply did not produce despite opportunities. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. Latest News/Blog Posts about Jason Heyward. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted Jason Heyward. Eno, how do you have the nerve to put up a Jason Heyward article before an article about Chone Figgins release? The lowest member of the group, Willie Randolph, still averaged more than three wins per season. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. by Retrosheet. Currently, Yahoo! Kiner-Falefa had a slash line of .261/.314/.327 . You could make a strong argument that it was the most impressive performance for a batter under age 21 since The Kid took Seattle by storm back in 1990. dodgersnation.com - Jeff Snider 10h Read more on dodgersnation.com This is how it usually works with increases in pulled grounders: Its a consequence of taking a more power-centric approach. He has been a well above-average hitter in the majors at an age when most players are in a short-season league, A-Ball or college. Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors If Heyward were coming off a .270/.365/.445-type season instead, you can bet he wouldnt be getting drafted behind guys like Corey Hart and Jayson Werth. Just how healthy is Heyward? The Royals, Billy Butler, and Young Pitching. Heyward made just one out on an attempted advance in 19 tries. The former Yankees and Rangers first baseman topped out at 97 mph from the left side and struck out the first batter he faced swinging on an offspeed pitch. Team Offense, New York Yankees | baseballmusings.com Dropping down Heywards offense by 20 runs still yields no other results. The chart below shows the varying WAR averages from above for Jason Heyward comps at age-26 through age-30, as well as 26-35. If thats something hes really doing, its probably because hes trying to up his power output. Cubs To Release Jason Heyward At End Of Season Advanced fielding statistics Ultimate Zone Rating (. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. A few trade pickups last year are rated highly in 2023. Craig Edwards can be found on twitter @craigjedwards. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. But hes younger than Dustin Ackley, Jemile Weeks, Paul Goldschmidt, Dee Gordon, Jason Kipnis and a host of other rookies who had successful debuts in 2011, and hes younger than top-ranked prospects entering 2012 like Devin Mesoraco, Brett Jackson and Travis DArnaud. There are few who doubt that, after finishing up his sixth season in Major League Baseball, Jason Heyward is a good player. One of the hottest young prospects in baseball right now is Atlanta's Jason Heyward. The team is heavy on left-handed hitting outfielders, with David Peralta locked in along with Jason Heyward fighting for a spot and top prospect James Outman on the cusp. I think the Bogaerts and Carpenter examples are meant to show that, while ground ball pull rate might not seem to be related to power at all (as you say, ground balls are not that great usually), Jeff thinks of it as an indicator of change.. Cubs, Heyward Agree To $184 Million, Eight-Year Deal The team is confident in Jason Heyward. 2022 Updated In-Season Projections Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. Out of 11 players, only Jim Fregosis production would not have justified a $200 million contract. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. Thats why I want to make sure you understand Im not really concluding anything. Why Jason Heyward's New $184 Million Contract Is A Steal Cubs Prospect Notes: Canario's Ranking, Brown's Pitches, Alcntara's All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. To me, that looks light, and as a huge Heyward fan I am doing my best in putting that out there without bias. This group also aged incredibly well. Jason Heyward opens baseball academy in Chicago from TrueBlueLA.com at 2/4/2023 5:04:00 AM. Jason Heyward Reality Check | FanGraphs Membership Maybe you heard that some guy named Jason Heyward made the Atlanta Braves' Opening Day roster. If he took the same type of offensive step forward as Carlos Beltran and Reggie Smith, he might win an MVP. Since the end of World War II, there are 42 players to have produced more than Heywards 61.9 defensive runs above average through age-25, and there are 61 players responsible for more offensive runs above average than Heywards 94.5 through his age-25 season. As in the case of the first table, we again see some of the greatest baseball players. The team appears content to begin the season with Trayce Thompson as the starter. Here is how they performed over their next ten seasons. Brooklyn-based Jay Jaffe is a senior writer for FanGraphs, the author of The Cooperstown Casebook (Thomas Dunne Books, 2017) and the creator of the JAWS (Jaffe WAR Score) metric for Hall of Fame analysis. by Handedness, 2007 June Amateur Draft - Round: 1, Pick: 14, Overall: 14, Team: Atlanta Braves. That level of production would justify a $200 million contract based on the first five years alone. Apparently the Dodgers will do anything to keep James Outman on the farm. Heyward hasn't shown quite the same level of plate discipline this season, as his rate of swinging at pitches out of the strike zone has increased by about four percentage points (24.2 percent to. Last year he hit for almost zero power, and his grounder pull rate went from 68% to 43%. Reported as the pre-2023 season number of waiver options remaining. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. Well know whats up by the beginning of May. A year ago, Jason Heyward was a fantasy baseball stud muffin. But for now, we can revel in the fact that Jason Heyward, yeah he does a pretty good Mike Trout impression. Birthdate: 8/9/1989 (33 y, 6 m, 21 d) Drafted: 2007 June Amateur Draft - Round: 1, Pick: 14, Overall: 14, Team: Atlanta Braves All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, But as long as were just having fun here, consider a few numbers. Nov 6 2015 Extended a $15.8 million qualiying offer by St. Louis (STL) Nov 17 2014 Traded to St. Louis (STL) from Atlanta (ATL) with Jordan Walden for Shelby Miller and Tyrell Jenkins. Granted, we cant just assume that Heyward will stay healthy from here on out (he had a thumb injury as a rookie and had some minor hip and shin ailments before that), but those are conservative projections if he does come to camp with a mended shoulder. Even with a bum shoulder, Heyward has managed to draw a decent amount of walks and hit for some power. And then well see if he wants to stay on the same course. The first graph is conservative, beginning the estimation of a cost of a win at $7 million with inflation set at five percent per year (although salaries have been rising at a rate greater than that amount in recent seasons and are up about 50% from half a dozen seasons ago). So I was like, Im just gonna kind of throw it at him down the middle. And he hit it out. Ellsbury, now 32, has been worth 21 wins since turning 26 while Crawford, 34, has been worth 22 wins over the last eight seasons. Using FanGraphs approximate current cost of a win at $8 million, the numbers are even bigger. FanGraphs crowdsourcing puts Heywards predicted contract at eight years and $184 million while Dave Cameron predicted a return to the Cardinals on a nine-year, $195 million contract with an opt-out after four years, making the value of the contract in excess of $200 million. Anyhow, heres where Heyward has hit baseballs in spring 2016: Of course Im wary of talking about anything based on so little data. . Heywards production, meanwhile, has been excellent from an early age, similar to multiple Hall of Famers. Thats baserunning without those gaudy stolen bases. Home run spike shows Statcast science is more potent than steroids As can always be said when writing about a small sample: What we have here is something to monitor. For the first method, we assume the only information we know is age, WAR, and total number of plate appearances. He recently contributed an article on Mike Stanton's slugging to The Hardball Times Annual 2012. Lets focus on Heyward and power for a minute, then. Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors The Chicago Cubs outfielder hit a third of batted balls in play in the air in 2016, but saw his slugging percentage dip to a career-low (.325) due to his exit velocity . Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted Regarding the second concern, I attempted to isolate only very good fielding outfielders. Dont look at me. Birthdate: 8/9/1989 (33 y, 6 m, 10 d) Drafted: 2007 June Amateur Draft - Round: 1, Pick: 14, Overall: 14, Team: Atlanta Braves Crawford is WAY ahead of simba according to pretty much every defensive metric this year. Progress report: Chicago Cubs - The San Diego Union-Tribune With an acknowledgment to the variance in sample size, we can compare the pitch locations of his 2014 against his first four big league seasons: As you might have guessed, thats bad news for Heyward, who, like many left-handed hitters, does his best work when hes able to feast on balls down and in. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, But, man oh man, do people ever love to talk about Jason Heyward not hitting for enough power. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. Jason Heyward as Mike Trout | FanGraphs Baseball Heyward improved slightly in the years to come but still struggled to get back to the form he showed prior to coming to Chicago. Miguel Rojas will replace Lux at shortstop. Time now for our annual spin through players whose luck in 2022 was worse (or better) than their fortune deserved. by Retrosheet. Notable in the Dodgers lineup is Jason Heyward playing in back-to-back games for the first time this spring, starting in centerfield for the second straight day. Quite obviously, Im lukewarm on Heyward, and his upside might merit a few dollars more, but Id need to see him take a step forward before I start paying for him as a frontline fantasy cornerstone. Over 55 combined seasons, the group averaged five wins per season. At an age when most players are chasing a trip to Omaha or cutting their teeth in Low Class-A, Jason Heyward crushed major league pitching in 2010. But lets diagnose why Atlantas prodigy is turning in a subpar sophomore season. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. . Signup . Freddie Freeman homers, Miguel Vargas walks again, Walker Buehler starts throwing. Only Al Kaline, Willie Mays, Ken Griffey, Jr., and Alex Rodriguez were within 15 runs on defense and ahead of him on offense. Heres a bomb to right. Now, Heyward has an extended history of making various adjustments underneath, he hasnt been that static. As teams expect to get the best production at the beginning of the contract, they understand that a contract will likely underpay the player in the early years and potentially overpay him as he ages with the surplus from the beginning ideally canceling out the loss at the end. 2022 Updated In-Season Projections Historically, Heyward has pulled just over half his grounders. Depending on ones point of view, it was an effort that was either an improvement in his development as a still-young hitter or a disturbing blight on his future value. Reported as the pre-2023 season number of waiver options remaining. Heyward went first to third on a single 15 of 32 times according to BIS, and thats not quite Trout-level (62%), but it was 15th-best of 180 qualified players. Bothered by a right shoulder injury that has lingered since spring training and pushed him to the DL in late May, Heyward has yet to reach the double digits in home runs and has drawn criticism from Chipper Jones regarding his ability to play through injuries. Players are always free to change their minds about anything. There are only four players ahead of him on both offense and defense: Evan Longoria, Johnny Bench, Barry Bonds, and Cal Ripken. With Gavin Lux out for the season, Dodgers plot avenues to contend once Effectively Wild Episode 87: Baseball and the BCS/Halladay vs. Lee/Does the Success Cycle Still Exist? All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman.